Comments on: Facebook Is Going To Be The Next Big Thing. Again.

By: JustJss

JustJss — Thu, 23 Sep 2010 02:49:39 +0000

Out of 150+ friends, the few (of all ages) I know who have “stuck” to facebook fall into two small groups:

1) Hopeless Farmville addicts. Once a large group, I think I’m down to single digits.

2) People who have something to sell and think that they HAVE to be there.

I thought I was in the second group, but as it turns out — I don’t have to be there. I feel bad for friends who tied up their identity with FB at the expense, in time, of building their own.

Unless you’re Zynga, et. al. …

Facebook + You = … Facebook.

It has its uses, of course. It’s worth having. It’s just not worth a lot; and at some point, the numbers will start to show it.

By: Twitter Will Make Money (Just Not That Much) | Re-gur-gi-tate (n) | Omer Gertel

Mon, 22 Mar 2010 21:18:18 +0000

[...] post series, trying to analyze the future of social media and the web. In part I, we examined what tools Facebook has to make it a dominant force on the internet and in our lives. In part II, we analyzed the battle over the architecture of the Internet. In part III, we make [...]

By: Matt Merriam

Matt Merriam — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 14:58:30 +0000

I hear all this and it sounds good. I’d like to see all this work out for Facebook but I see some significant problems. First and foremost is that I’m petrified of Facebook apps, they are so often rogue trojan horses for identity thieves. So why would I step up to expose my identity to their API?

This has inspired me … I’m writing up my thoughts on my blog http://www.mattmerriam.com.

Thanks for the nudge, great post, good stuff …

By: Omer Gertel

Omer Gertel — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 16:35:23 +0000

Mike, I agree. It does seem Facebook are just stumbling along. One of the problems is that they haven’t built a brand in any way. We don’t know what they stand for.
And yet, we give them all this power and information about ourselves. Each and every one of us is working on making Facebook more important. It really says a lot about our own judgment of character, I think.
This lack of direction can be a way for someone to take over the social network market, but the chances are getting slimmer each day that passes.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 14:13:50 +0000

Interesting analysis.
I agree with you that Facebook has a lot that is going for it, and I don’t see it disappear any time soon. We are stuck with it for a long time.

But there is something rotten in Facebook as a company. Something about company’s DNA, culture, call whatever you like. They don’t have the authentic spirit of Twitter, the engineering excellence of Google, the innovation skills of Apple.

It feels to me that they stumbled on their success by chance, and now they lack a true sense of direction. So in my opinion they have to find their true self, if they want to succeed in the long term.

By: Omer Gertel

Omer Gertel — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 07:08:46 +0000

George, this is a terrible idea.
A) They already pull in a lot of members, for longer periods than anyone else.
B) Paying people to click/watch ads has been tried several times, and failed. When you mix money and pleasure, money wins and pleasure goes away (read Dan Areily’s book, Predictably Irrational). My time is expensive, so I better be making a lot of money, or it won’t be worth my time. Usually these methods only share what accumulates to a few bucks. That’s just not enough. It’s insulting. And now, the users don’t think it’s fun anymore.

By: George Smith

George Smith — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:11:22 +0000

I believe Facebook could better compete with Google by further changing their business model to one like PeopleString. If Facebook wants more advertising dollars, they will need to pull in a lot of members. Why not return a percentage of the advertising dollars they currently make back to the members? This would increase the incentive of the present membership to help draw in more members and provide Facebook with ever increasing members for advertisers to market to.

By: Charlie

Charlie — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 15:59:32 +0000

Great post! I am looking forward to Part II. If Facebook can reinvent itself and pull off a coup of this magnitude it bodes well for some other interesting underdogs out there.

By: Alex Apetrei

Alex Apetrei — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 10:04:26 +0000

so … I’m testing out your theory, I just logged on to here using my facebook account.

There are a million ways to monetize facebook , except you only get 1 chance at doing it right. Should they fuck up on the Identity Management scheme … not sure how many people would stick around for a second attempt.

By: Omer Gertel

Omer Gertel — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 21:14:23 +0000

They have Google Checkout to compete with paypal.

Anyway, the point in place is that by having the users interact, Facebook doesn’t need to be as clever. We are working for Facebook, making the experience better for ourselves. For example, when I needed to buy a new mobile, I asked people on Facebook for recommendations. When I needed an old computer for my GF’s parents, I asked on Facebook if anyone was throwing one away. By responding to each other, we make Facebook useful. Google is only as specific as the data it indexes. In Facebook relevant data is created just for me by my peers.
(BTW, Google recently acquired Aardvark, for a relatively high sum of $50M. Aardvak uses social networks to answer questions that the Google search engine is really bad at but humans answer with ease).